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Mike Clay
Multiple Authors
The Playbook is your one-stop shop for all your fantasy football decisions for Week 9, which kicks off Thursday night with a game between the Jaguars and Ravens.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start advice, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
JAX-BAL | CIN-ATL | DAL-IND | NYJ-KC | DET-MIA | CLE-NO | NYG-PHI | LAR-WAS
DEN-CAR | HOU-LAC | GB-NE | LV-SF | ARI-SEA | TB-CHI | BUF-MIN
Projected score: Jaguars 28, Ravens 14
Lineup locks: Trevor Lawrence, Derrick Henry, Bhayshul Tuten, Zay Flowers, Parker Washington
Fantasy Scoop: Washington is hanging onto lineup lock status, but it’s in jeopardy after a boom/bust first half of the season. Washington opened the season with a pair of top-12 fantasy outings but has followed with just one top-25 in his past five games. The concern with Washington was that there would be too many mouths to feed in Jacksonville, and that seems to be rearing its head, as he’s seen nine-plus targets in three games but six or fewer in the other five outings. The latter includes Sunday’s season-low two targets. Washington’s 24.5% target share on the season remains strong, and he’s set up with a good Week 9 matchup against a Baltimore defense that sits in top 10 in catches, yards and fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Leave him in your lineup.
Over/under: 41.9 (14th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 92% (highest)
Projected score: Bengals 27, Falcons 21
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Bijan Robinson, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London, Tee Higgins
Fantasy Scoop: Mike Gesicki continues to break math, having scored exactly one touchdown in six of seven games, including one in each of his past five outings. After totaling exactly two touchdowns in each of the past three seasons, Gesicki has six scores on 24 targets in 2026. Allow me to state the obvious: Gesicki’s scoring streak is unsustainable. He has seen a respectable four end zone targets, but his 3.1 expected TD total (xTD) is still well below his actual output. Gesicki sports a 9.2% target share (same as in 2025), which isn’t nearly high enough to allow consistent fantasy TE1 production. That was evident in his two games before Sunday, when he totaled 10 yards on three targets. He shouldn’t be near lineups against Atlanta.
Shadow Alert: London can expect shadow coverage from DJ Turner (assuming he’s healthy enough to play) when aligned on the perimeter (62% of his routes) this week. Expectations should be lowered slightly.
Over/under: 48.7 (7th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 70% (10th highest)
Projected score: Cowboys 31, Colts 25
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Tyler Warren
Fantasy Scoop: Warren returned from a two-game injury absence Sunday and was limited to 18 yards on four receptions. It was his worst fantasy outing of the season despite the fact that he matched a career high with 10 targets. Warren has now seen nine or more targets in three of his past four games, and his 23.5% target share (when active) ranks fourth among all tight ends. That usage has helped him to three touchdowns and 12.6 fantasy PPG, which ranks fifth at the position. Yardage has been an issue due to Warren’s short area role (4.3 aDOT), but he has proved to be a viable PPR merchant who also gets run near the goal line. Though the Cowboys have been serviceable against tight ends, they still sport the league’s worst defensive EPA, which positions Warren for a bounce-back game in Week 9. He remains a solid TE1 option.
Over/under: 55.8 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 71% (8th highest)
Projected score: Chiefs 28, Jets 19
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Rashee Rice, Garrett Wilson
Fantasy Scoop: Adonai Mitchell exploded for a 7-142-1 receiving line on nine targets Sunday. His 27.2 fantasy points were a career high and more than double his total (21.3) for his first four games of the season. Mitchell has now played three full games (he was limited in his return from injury in Week 7) and has registered at least 60 yards in all three. Mitchell clearly has a solid connection with Geno Smith, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in a Jets offense that also includes Wilson, Omar Cooper Jr., Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq (not to mention the team’s running backs). Boom/bust production is likely from Mitchell, as we’ve seen from Wilson (under 9.0 fantasy points in three games, but 13.9-plus points in the other five) and Cooper (22-plus fantasy points in Weeks 6 and 7, but zero targets in Week 8). After consecutive good matchups, the New York offense will now need to deal with a Kansas City defense that has allowed only two TDs and the second-fewest fantasy points to WRs. Only one receiver (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) has reached 15.0 fantasy points against the Chiefs. As with Cooper, Mitchell is a risky flex option.
Over/under: 46.9 (9th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 79% (5th highest)
Projected score: Lions 31, Dolphins 25
Lineup locks: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ollie Gordon II, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy Scoop: Malik Willis is on the streaming radar this week. The dual-threat quarterback has dealt with one of the league’s hardest schedules this season, having faced only one defense that sits worse than 15th in fantasy points allowed to the position (Raiders, Week 1). He was serviceable in that game (16.7 fantasy points) and was even better in his only other two games against defenses in the upper half in fantasy points allowed to QBs (18.9 points vs. the Bengals in Week 5 and 26.0 points vs. the Jets in Week 7). This week, Willis draws his easiest matchup of the season, a Lions defense that has surrendered the most completions, yards, TDs and fantasy points to the position. Every QB Detroit has faced has scored 17-plus fantasy points. Willis, who has two pass TDs in two straight and sits top five among QBs in carries, rushing yards and rushing TDs, should be viewed as a fringe QB1.
Over/under: 56.3 (highest)
Win probability: Lions 70% (9th highest)
Projected score: Browns 21, Saints 21
Lineup lock: Chris Olave
Fantasy Scoop: Harold Fannin Jr. put up career-high marks in catches (10) and yardage (154) on a season-high 12 targets Sunday. It wasn’t even Fannin’s best fantasy outing of the season (24.1 points in Week 3), but it is another boom in what has been a painfully boom/bust season. The second-year tight end has reached 23 fantasy points twice but has fallen short of 5.0 points three times. The good news is that his usage has been way up the past two weeks (28% target share, after 17% during Weeks 1 through 6), which has helped him to 245 receiving yards during the span. Fannin’s volatility makes him a bit risky, but he’s set up with a good Week 9 matchup against a New Orleans defense that has allowed the sixth-most catches, yards and fantasy points to tight ends. Fannin is a back end TE1.
Over/under: 41.7 (15th highest)
Win probability: Browns 51% (15th highest)
Projected score: Giants 28, Eagles 19
Lineup locks: Malik Nabers, Isaiah Likely
Fantasy Scoop: When we last saw the Giants (Week 7), Cam Skattebo resumed duties as the team’s lead back. After essentially being benched in Week 6 (zero touches), Skattebo rebounded with 121 yards and one TD on 18 touches. With Tyrone Tracy Jr. on injured reserve, Skattebo will work as the team’s clear lead rusher, though he hasn’t been much of a factor in the passing game (11-76-0 on 13 targets) and figures to defer most of that work to Devin Singletary, who also found the end zone in Week 7. Skattebo’s role is enough to place him back in the RB2/flex mix, but keep in mind that he was limited to 10.8 fantasy PPG during Weeks 1 through 5 despite averaging a hefty 18.2 touches. The Eagles have been solid against running backs this season despite having faced the most RB touches.
Over/under: 47.1 (8th highest)
Win probability: Giants 82% (4th highest)
Projected score: Rams 28, Commanders 22
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua
Fantasy Scoop: Blake Corum has produced one touchdown, 60-plus yards and 13-plus fantasy points in four consecutive games. Despite the success, he remains no more than a borderline flex option. Still second in line behind Williams, Corum is averaging 10.6 touches and has cleared 11 touches only twice. His usage hasn’t changed much between the first four weeks of the season (zero TDs, 5.6 fantasy PPG) and the most recent four weeks (four TDs, 15.2 PPG). Corum’s recent scoring run is unsustainable, and, while he’s pacing for slightly more touches this year (27 more, to be exact), we saw something similar in 2025. Corum had a four-week run in which he produced one-plus TD, 60-plus yards and 13-plus fantasy points in each game but averaged 4.3 fantasy PPG with a total of one TD in his other 13 outings. This season, Corum is well over his head in the TD department (1.6 xTD, two carries inside the 5) and is not seeing enough volume as a rusher (29th among RBs) or receiver (31st in targets). Corum is a TD-dependent flex against a Commanders defense that has allowed 3.6 yards per carry to running backs this season (seventh lowest).
Over/under: 49.8 (5th highest)
Win probability: Rams 69% (11th highest)
Projected score: Broncos 25, Panthers 21
Lineup locks: Chuba Hubbard, Jonah Coleman, Tetairoa McMillan
Fantasy Scoop: Week 8 presented us with our first look at the Coleman/J.K. Dobbins backfield, and it was the former who took control as the lead back. Coleman held a clear edge over Dobbins in snaps (38 to 12), carries (11 to seven), routes (16 to two) and targets (5 to zero). The rookie turned 15 touches into 104 yards and one touchdown. There’s certainly a risk that Dobbins could earn back a larger share of the carries, and RJ Harvey (currently on IR) will have a substantial role as a pass catcher once healthy, but Coleman’s Week 8 usage and strong overall play suggests he’s safely atop the depth chart for now. This week, he’ll face a Panthers defense that has allowed the second-most touchdowns (11) and fantasy points to RBs. Coleman is a viable fantasy RB2, whereas Dobbins belongs on benches/waivers.
Shadow Alert: McMillian has added bust risk this week, as he’s a good bet to be shadowed by Pat Surtain II when aligned on the perimeter (69% of his routes).
Over/under: 46.1 (11th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 62% (13th highest)
Projected score: Texans 24, Chargers 18
Lineup locks: Woody Marks, Nico Collins
Fantasy Scoop: After opening the season with a 14-193-3 receiving line on 18 targets in his first two games (21-plus fantasy points in both), Collins has slumped to 10-136-0 on 17 targets during his past three contests (under 11.0 fantasy points in all three, the first time that’s happened since Weeks 1 through 3 of the 2022 season). Despite the slump, Collins should remain in lineups. He’s playing well overall (his 71% catch rate and 9.7 YPT are both up from 2025) and remains C.J. Stroud’s top target. He’s set up with a solid matchup against a Chargers defense that hasn’t faced much pass volume (second-fewest attempts) but has allowed a 69% catch rate to receivers (third highest) and surrendered an 11-80-1 receiving line to Puka Nacua in Week 8.
Over/under: 42.3 (13th highest)
Win probability: Texans 71% (7th highest)
Projected score: 49ers 33, Raiders 22
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Ashton Jeanty, Mike Evans, Brock Bowers, George Kittle
Fantasy Scoop: Do the Raiders have a new lead back? They certainly did in Week 8, as rookie Mike Washington Jr. handled 25 carries on 38 snaps, whereas Jeanty was limited to two rushing attempts on 22 snaps. Jeanty (four targets on 13 routes, compared to zero targets on four routes for Washington) remained the team’s primary receiving back, but the massive shift in early-down usage was a significant — albeit not totally surprising — development. Since totaling 23 carries in Week 1, Jeanty’s rushing attempt total has dipped or stayed the same every week of the season, which has been at least somewhat related to a lack of efficiency (3.1 YPC). Washington, meanwhile, sits at 4.3 yards per carry on the season, though he wasn’t quite as effective in a larger role Sunday (83 yards on 25 carries). The carries figure to even out a bit moving forward, and Jeanty holds a massive role in the passing game (he paces all backs in targets, catches, receiving yards and receiving TDs), so there’s still enough here to allow him fringe RB1 fantasy production. You were hoping for more from your Round 1/2 pick, but the bottom line is that, even with fewer carries, he should remain in lineups, especially this week against a 49ers defense that has surrendered the most catches and receiving yards to running backs this season.
Over/under: 55.4 (3rd highest)
Win probability: 49ers 85% (3rd highest)
Projected score: Patriots 26, Packers 23
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Josh Jacobs, Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, A.J. Brown, Tucker Kraft
Fantasy Scoop: Jordan Love has had quite the high-floor/low-ceiling start to 2026. Love has delivered at least 13 fantasy points in all eight games but has reached 22 points just once. He’s finished between QB7 and QB20 in fantasy points in all eight weeks. Love’s passing output has been good (he leads the NFL in attempts and yardage), but he’s also thrown an interception in six games and remains a nonfactor as a rusher (11-10-1 rushing line on the season). As long as Green Bay remains a pass-heavy offense (very possible, barring a trade for a running back or improved play from Jacobs), Love will provide a solid fantasy floor, but he’s likely to max out as a fringe QB1 most weeks. That’s exactly how he should be valued this week in a neutral matchup against New England.
Over/under: 48.8 (6th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 62% (14th highest)
Projected score: Seahawks 29, Cardinals 18
Lineup locks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Michael Wilson, Trey McBride
Fantasy Scoop: Tyler Allgeier took advantage of injuries to Jeremiyah Love and Bam Knight en route to delivering 191 yards and two TDs on 16 touches against Dallas on Sunday. Allgeier was playing clear second fiddle to Love early in the game, but the injuries led to an every down role and a 36.1-point effort that nearly equaled his total for his first seven games of the season (48.0). Love has been placed on injured reserve, so Allgeier’s Week 9 value will depend on the status of Knight. If he’s sidelined, Allgeier will have a clear path to a featured role and will launch into the RB2 mix. Should Knight play, an Allgeier-led committee will be likely, similar to Weeks 6 and 7, when Allgeier handled 26 carries and five targets on 74 snaps, compared to Knight’s 22 carries and seven targets on 71 snaps. In that scenario, both would be underwhelming flex options against a Seattle defense allowing 3.3 yards per carry (second lowest) to RBs. On Monday night, D’Andre Swift became the first RB to reach 17.5 fantasy points against Seattle this season and only the third since the start of 2025, and he needed three touchdowns to do it as he was limited to just 2.7 yards per carry for 69 in total, and two catches for 10 yards.
Over/under: 46.6 (10th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 87% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Bears 26, Buccaneers 19
Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, D’Andre Swift, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland
Fantasy Scoop: Over the past two weeks, the Buccaneers have called 16 pass plays and 104 run plays. You read that correctly. Game scripts were as run-friendly as possible in both games thanks to sizable leads and Sunday’s heavy rain. The circumstances have been beneficial for Irving (45.0 fantasy points during the two games) and Rico Dowdle (22.8) but not for the team’s wide receivers and tight ends (combined 6-60-1 receiving line and 19.4 fantasy points). This should be obvious, but Tampa Bay’s recent stretch is nowhere close to sustainable and is a strong bet to return to normalcy against a much better Chicago team in Week 9. Still, the Bucs pass offense will be tough to trust, and only Emeka Egbuka (if he returns from injury) should be considered for your WR3/Flex slot.
Over/under: 44.7 (12th highest)
Win probability: Bears 75% (6th highest)
Projected score: Bills 27, Vikings 23
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook III, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore
Fantasy Scoop: The Vikings rolled with a three-headed backfield committee against the Lions in Week 8. Aaron Jones Sr. (19 snaps, five carries, two targets) and Jordan Mason (14 snaps, eight carries, zero targets) handled most of the opportunities, but DeeJay Dallas (17 snaps, one carry, zero targets) was on the field often when the team was passing. So far this season, Jones has yet to clear 10.0 fantasy points in three games with Mason active, Mason has been busy as a rusher but has yet to catch a pass and Dallas has eight touches in seven games. The good news is that this group has a strong Week 9 matchup against a Bills defense that has allowed the third-most TDs (10) and fantasy points to running backs. The bad news is that none can be trusted in lineups, especially considering how little Minnesota finds the end zone.
Shadow Report: Jefferson can expect shadow coverage courtesy of Christian Benford this week. Buffalo has struggled defensively, surrendering the most TDs and fifth-most fantasy points to WRs, so, if anything, Jefferson should be upgraded.
Over/under: 50.3 (4th highest)
Win probability: Bills 62% (12th highest)
