Happy trails, Houston, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina and USC.
The SEC’s chaos scenario of five teams in the College Football Playoff’s final bracket is finished after Week 11 was unkind for several multi-loss and nationally ranked hopefuls within the conference. Coupled with Houston’s loss at Colorado and USC’s setback at Indiana, there’s a handful of squads whose chances have plummeted coming down the stretch given their expected falls in the CFP Selection Committee’s updated rankings.
We’ve updated our CFP bracket to reflect how we think it’ll look at season’s end, along with matchup picks for every bowl game with two weeks left in the regular season. For now, it looks like the 12-team CFP bracket will consist of four SEC teams, two Big Ten, two Big 12, two ACC, Notre Dame and the Group of Six’s highest-ranked squad.
Here’s our latest postseason projections, with Ole Miss-Oklahoma still to be played on Sunday:
Cricket Celebration
Projection: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
San Juan Bowl
Projection: Syracuse vs. Marshall
There’s no quit in Fran Brown’s Orange, who posted another double-digit road comeback in ACC play on Saturday with a fourth-quarter surge against NC State. Syracuse outscored the Wolfpack 21-3 in the final frame for the 34-31 decision that pushed the team’s win total to five this season. This comes a couple of weeks after Syracuse took care of North Carolina in overtime after trailing by 10 points to begin the fourth. The Orange have Boston College and Notre Dame left, needing to split those to reach the postseason.
Salute to Veterans
Projection: Nebraska vs. Miami (Ohio)
The Huskers blanked Rutgers for their sixth win, which snapped a four-game losing skid since an unbeaten start. For Matt Rhule, it’s a positive step during a frustrating season for a team with matchups left against nationally ranked Ohio State and Iowa. Anthony Colandrea threw two touchdown passes and freshman Jamal Rule eclipsed 100 yards rushing for the third time. Those are two players guaranteed to be focal points of next season’s offense as Rhule enters a pivotal Year 5 at the program.
Frisco Football Classic
Projection: Illinois vs. Louisiana
Boca Raton
Projection: Liberty vs. USF
Gasparilla
Projection: South Carolina vs. Tulsa
So much for South Carolina’s potential storybook ending this season. Next weekend’s battle with top-ranked Georgia holds little value following Saturday night’s 28-point loss at Arkansas, arguably the worst loss of Shane Beamer’s tenure given the stakes. The Gamecocks had won four straight games with a continuous climb in the rankings before their defense struggled against the Razorbacks. South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers missed the game, and his absence was obvious for an offense that never found its stride during OC Kendal Briles’ return to his former school after Cutter Woods turned it over three times in his second career start.
Myrtle Beach
Projection: Georgia Southern vs. Minnesota
Puerto Rico
Projection: UMass vs. Georgia State
Potato
Projection: Western Michigan vs. UNLV
Cure
Projection: Ohio vs. JMU
Independence
Projection: Washington vs. Iowa State
One of three Big 12 teams that moved to 5-5 overall in Week 11, the Cyclones replace West Virginia in our postseason projection given opportunities left against UCF and Kansas State. The Mountaineers have to take on Houston and Utah by comparison — likely losses that could keep Rich Rodriguez’s team outside of the bowl picture.
New Orleans
Projection: Appalachian State vs. Jacksonville State
Poinsettia
Projection: Fresno State vs. Arizona State
Armed Forces
Projection: Middle Tennessee vs. Central Michigan
Frisco Bowl
Projection: Buffalo vs. ECU
Hawaii
Projection: North Dakota State vs. Texas State
New Mexico
Projection: Wyoming vs. UTSA
Mayo
Projection: Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern
Penn State’s another option here since the Nittany Lions haven’t played their hated rival since 2019, and that game would bring quite a postseason draw to Charlotte. However, Northwestern is more likely given Penn State’s hot streak with three straight wins and a probable 8-4 finish. And unfortunately for the Panthers, they would come into this one limping after seeing their hot start capsize down the stretch. Friday night’s home loss to Florida State was their fourth in the last five games, and they’re down to QB3 after true freshman Corey Dailey made his second start. Holden Geriner initially replaced injured starter Mason Heintschel at quarterback in early October prior to his benching.
Pinstripe
Projection: Virginia vs. Wisconsin
The Cavaliers need one more win for bowl eligibility after beating California at home to snap a three-game losing streak. Wisconsin had a mind-boggling loss at Maryland, one that’s going to sting for Luke Fickell since it may keep the Badgers out of a Florida-based postseason game next month.
68 Ventures
Projection: Air Force vs. Louisiana Tech
Fenway
Projection: Clemson vs. Memphis
After Saturday’s shocker at home against Georgia Tech, there’s a chance Dabo Swinney’s group finishes 6-6 this season. That would mean a tumble down the ACC’s bowl pecking order — if that’s still a thing — for a team with significant injuries at several key positions offensively. The Tigers are down to their third-string quarterback ahead of Friday’s game at Duke and end the regular season with nationally ranked South Carolina coming to Memorial Stadium. We’ve downgraded Clemson in this week’s bowl projections to the outer fringe in the conference. After playing in the Pinstripe last season, Clemson gets another baseball venue in December.
Cactus
Projection: Michigan vs. Houston
What an unexplainable loss for 14th-ranked Houston, which is sure to fall out of Tuesday night’s updated top 20 after giving up 42 points Friday at Colorado. There was still an outside shot of reaching the CFP by winning out, but that’s over for Willie Fritz’s team after their failure-to-show on the road against one of the Big 12’s bottom-feeders.
Birmingham
Projection: FAU vs. Mississippi State
Even if the Bulldogs don’t hit the necessary six-win threshold, there’s a good chance ESPN will put Mississippi State in a bowl game to fill the SEC’s tie-ins. Unlike APR scores the last few years filling available slots in the postseason, ESPN reportedly has discretion now to grant invites for those interested in more practices and another game.
Military
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Army
Pop-Tarts
Projection: Duke vs. Oklahoma State
The Pop-Tarts Bowl already has the best post-game spectacle of bowl season, and this ACC-Big 12 pairing would give us a reason to tune in long before somebody gets the toaster going with edible goo going toward the winner. Duke’s Nate Sheppard is one of the nation’s top running backs, and Oklahoma State has a penchant for playing shootouts under first-year coach Eric Morris. That’s not necessarily a good thing against a team that can score like the Blue Devils given the weaponry, but on paper, this would be one of the postseason’s better matchups with little fear of heavy opt-outs.
Alamo
Projection: BYU vs. Oregon
Two teams on the cusp of getting in, there’s a feeling the Cougars and Ducks will be two of the first squads out of the 12-team bracket in a few weeks. Texas Tech has one fewer loss in the Big 12, and a possible setback in the conference championship game may be overlooked. BYU has the win over Notre Dame, but the loss at UCF stings. As for Oregon, the Ducks need to win out and get help from a few teams ranked ahead of them at the moment.
Gator
Projection: SMU vs. Florida
Any outside path to the CFP the Mustangs had entering Week 11 is over after SMU’s blowout loss to Wake Forest. As for the Gators, Jon Sumrall went back to Lexington and put a dent in his alma mater’s CFP expectations. Florida’s 21-14 win over Kentucky came down to Aaron Philo, who ran for 102 yards in his return to the starting lineup and finished a 14-play drive with the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. The Gators held Kentucky to 61 rushing yards and kept the Wildcats off the board in the fourth. Florida is bowl-eligible, and Kentucky heads to Missouri with two straight losses at the worst possible time.
Music City
Projection: Iowa vs. Kentucky
Will Stein’s first season with the Wildcats should be commended, but Kentucky has simply run out of gas down the stretch. Saturday night’s loss to Florida all but seals Kentucky’s CFP fate for a team guaranteed to fall outside of the top 12 of the selection committee’s next set of rankings. Kentucky plays Missouri next weekend and ends with Louisville in Lexington on Nov. 28. If the Wildcats win both, there’s a chance we see the Citrus Bowl calling this team.
ReliaQuest
Projection: Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Ahead of Sunday’s rescheduled game at Oklahoma, there’s no way to improve the resume over the season’s final two weeks for Ole Miss, one of several three-loss teams inside the top 20 of the selection committee’s second rankings. The 35-point loss to Georgia earlier this month was ugly, as was the 24-point setback at Florida in September. With Kewan Lacy out for the season with a shoulder injury and Trinidad Chambliss’ numbers not matching last year’s production, this is a disappointment for Pete Golding should Ole Miss finish 9-3 without a CFP appearance.
Sun
Projection: North Carolina vs. Arizona
Las Vegas
Projection: USC vs. Oklahoma
Jayden Maiava picked a bad time for his worst outing of the season, a three-interception loss at Indiana that included the dreaded red-zone turnover in the fourth quarter of a one-possession battle. With the loss, USC’s best possible finish is nine wins, which likely isn’t enough for a team that will fall from its current No. 18 ranking in the CFP’s eyes.
The Sooners’ win last week at Florida puts Brent Venables back in position to keep the program’s bowl streak alive with a win over his final three games against Ole Miss (Sunday), Texas A&M or at Missouri. Oklahoma’s 27 consecutive bowl appearances (dating back to the 1999 season) are second nationally behind Georgia.
Texas
Projection: Baylor vs. Missouri
In this matchup of top-end quarterbacks, DJ Lagway and Austin Simmons are two players who could be leaders across the sport in 2027, with both expected to return to their respective programs. Neither would opt out of this one, either. Simmons recently re-signed with the Tigers after starring in his first campaign as a starter following his transfer from Ole Miss. He gives Missouri stability moving forward on offense and would’ve been a hot commodity had he been a portal casualty in January.
Citrus
Projection: Ohio State vs. LSU
This would potentially be the best non-CFP matchup of bowl season — if both teams decide to play at full strength. That’s a big if considering Jeremiah Smith’s 2027 NFL Draft projections and a host of possible early-rounders for the Tigers. Both of these squads winning out over the next couple of weeks could make things interesting on the selection committee, but for now, we’re keeping the outside of the final top 12. It’s unlikely any selection committee member looked at the Buckeyes’ win over Northwestern in Week 11 and enhanced their thoughts on Ryan Day’s squad. LSU’s loss to Texas squandered its shot at ranked victory No. 1 of the season under Lane Kiffin.
First Responder
Projection: Florida State vs. North Texas
The Seminoles are winning under interim coach Rick Stockstill while the school’s in the middle of its search after its recent athletic director hire. Friday’s night’s 16-10 victory at Pitt puts Florida State at 5-5 overall with home games against NC State and Florida left, needing only one win amongst those to reach bowl eligibility. That would mark an invaluable extra couple of weeks of practice time in the postseason and give the Seminoles momentum toward their new regime in 2027.
Liberty
Projection: Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Getting to bowl eligibility in Year 1 on the Plains is a positive step for Alex Golesh, but still falls short of where those inside and around the program assumed the Tigers would be at the end of the season. A roster reload this offseason beginning at quarterback and various other skill positions will determine where Golesh’s team sits in the 2027 SEC pecking order.
Arizona
Projection: New Mexico vs. Toledo
New Mexico squandered its chance to capture the selection committee’s attention against Dan Mullen and UNLV after faltering at home. The opportunity was there to gain ground on Boise State in the Group of Six discussion following the Broncos’ five-point win over Oregon State, but the Lobos failed to produce the go-ahead score in the final moments.
Holiday
Projection: Louisville vs. Oregon State
College Football Playoff
First Round
Projection: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
Will the Broncos slip in Tuesday’s rankings after giving up 41 points to Oregon State and backup quarterback Maalik Murphy? It’s possible, but they’ve widened the gap in the Group of Six discussion after New Mexico’s home loss to UNLV. Maddux Madsen threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns in his return to the lineup, a positive development for Spencer Danielson’s squad.
Texas notched its fifth ranked win of the season in Baton Rouge thanks to Arch Manning’s touchdown pass to Raleek Brown in the final seconds. It was an all-time final possession for the Longhorns, who have continued to impress the selection committee in big spots this season. Texas has Arkansas and Texas A&M left, so we’re expecting 10 wins and a first-round home game for Steve Sarkisian’s team.
Projection: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami
Thanks to a clock-eating drive in the fourth quarter to make it a two-score game, the Hurricanes held off Duke and standout ball carrier Nate Sheppard in Week 11 to recover from last week’s loss at Notre Dame. Javian Mallory’s three second-half touchdowns were enough to lift Miami, which is two wins away from the ACC Championship Game and a chance to garner top-four billing on Selection Sunday.
Texas Tech needed style points in Stillwater and did a heck of a job grabbing those after beating Oklahoma State. It was a loud statement for the 12th-ranked Red Raiders, who we expect to at least move up one spot Tuesday night following Kentucky’s loss to Florida. The switch to Thomas Castellanos at quarterback has worked wonders for an offense that has looked unstoppable in recent weeks. Texas Tech replaces BYU as our last team in this week. Castellanos injured his ribs in the second half against the Cowboys, so that’s a factor to watch for the Red Raiders.
Projection: No. 10 Wake Forest at No. 7 Alabama
Put some respect on the Demon Deacons’ name! It’s happening for Jake Dickert’s program this season. They’ve outscored the opposition 145-0 in the first half of their last four victories following Saturday’s bludgeoning of SMU on the road and enter our projection for the first time this season as an at-large selection from the ACC. Wake Forest could move up in this pecking order by winning out and taking the conference over Miami, but just getting in is good enough for now.
Alabama avoided the upset in Nashville and that’s all that matters during a weekend that was unkind for several other SEC CFP hopefuls. Ranked third in the selection committee’s second rankings, we’re expecting the Crimson Tide to slide outside of the top-4 unless they beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. With Chattanooga and Auburn left, those are two wins that won’t move the needle.
Projection: No. 9 UCLA at No. 8 Tennessee
In this scenario, unbeaten UCLA loses twice over its final three games — the season finale against USC and in the Big Ten title game against Indiana. Nothing to fear, there’s still a potential first-round home game coming as the league’s runner-up, but it’s a considerable slide from the Bruins’ current No. 4 ranking in the selection committee’s top 25. And if UCLA does finish with two losses and its resume is compared to, say, two-loss Tennessee, the Bruins might be on the road to open the CFP.
For the Vols, winning out could finally push Tennessee above Alabama for seeding purposes given the head-to-head win last month — or would it? The selection committee hasn’t yet put the Vols and Crimson Tide in the same pod, thus making head-to-head an irrelevant data point for now. A loss to LSU or Vanderbilt over its final two games puts Tennessee in one of the last-teams-in slots.
Quarterfinals
PEACH BOWL projection: TBD vs. No. 1 Georgia
This machine under Kirby Smart continues to dominate. No team nationally has looked more complete over its last three games than the Bulldogs since last month’s forgettable outing at home against Auburn. Georgia took that one personally, and it shows. Next weekend’s trip to South Carolina could be a cakewalk given the injury status of LaNorris Sellers, and a showdown with Alabama or Texas in Atlanta next month will have significant seeding implications.
ROSE BOWL projection: TBD vs. No. 2 Utah
The Utes survived Arizona’s upset bid on Saturday night and stayed inside our top-three projection this week as one of the nation’s two remaining unbeatens. The Big 12 looks like a two-bid league at the minimum, and Utah has been one of this season’s overall squads throughout within the Power Four.
COTTON BOWL projection: TBD vs. No. 3 Indiana
The winner of the Big Ten is going to be a top-four seed per our updated projections, and for now, we’re leaning toward the Hoosiers here given their elite defensive play in recent weeks. Yes, UCLA’s unbeaten, but the Bruins still have to play USC and a potential matchup with Indiana in Indianapolis will be their toughest game to date.
FIESTA BOWL projection: TBD vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
Will Notre Dame be slotted ahead of Miami should both teams win out and the Hurricanes have the “conference champion” designation? It’s an interesting question where the data point of head-to-head should have influence. However, that win over Miami for the Fighting Irish came against a Malachi Toney-less offense by seven points, something the selection committee may consider. If he’s back for the postseason, opinions surrounding Miami’s overall value could change.
